Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Technical Picture - Markets Swoon

The markets gapped down and plunged lower as the July/Aug. trendline was badly broken. The Fed's indications they would be buyers of government debt spooked the markets because the rest of the statement regarding slowing growth was already priced in. In addition, weak data overseas (China/Japan) exacerbated the fear factor. Technically, the market momentum had reached a crawl and the averages were holding on to an extended posture. The markets closed on their lows with some additional weakness noted following CSCO earnings.

The SOX is testing range support floor.

Waiting for a pullback to buy gold.

OIL - No real supply/demand story, so wait till price pulls back to trendline.

Ag/chem - Strong supply/demand story as depicted by crop futures - scale in on weakness.

$USD oversold bounce will likely break the downsloping trendline, but I suspect a short-term play.

Euro topped out at resistance - correction back to original trendline.

$CAD - failed BO leads to correction and lower trendline.